Another (pretty cool) matchpoints hand from a tourney I subbed in (tonight.)

All red, 1st:

AJT8 / KJ6 / KJ3 / QT8

 

Quite the tenaces.  I opened 1NT, partner slammed me into 3NT.

3 of Clubs led. 

Q932 / A9 / A654 / 762

AJT8 / KJ6 / KJ3 / QT8

 

Hmmm, Stayman is your friend, partner.  Oh well.

The opps run off 4 Club tricks (opening leader had AJ53 originally,) RHO discarding a nebulous Heart, and LHO switches to the 6 of Spades.  You try dummy's Queen in tempo and RHO plays low in tempo.

93 / A9 / A654 / -

AJ8 / KJ6 / KJ / -

 

This is actually a very cool hand that I should have gotten right, but shoulda coulda woulda.  I didn't.

 

If RHO is good enough to duck the King of Spades smoothly, I think you've gotta just pay him off.  95% chance that the King of Spades is on your left.  That leaves you a couple of options.

First option, if Diamonds are 3-3 with Q onside and the Heart Queen is onside, you can try to make this hand at the risk of going down extra (especially if both Queens are offside.)  You can score 2 Spades, 3 Hearts and 4 Diamonds.

Second option, forget trying to make the hand, figure out the best way for down 1.  Which is ...

Well, the first option you can throw out the window.  What LHO in their right mind is going to lead away from their King of Spades (that they know is the setting trick) when they have a perfectly passive red suit switch from rags available?  If anything, LHO is about 80% to hold both red suit Queens (I'd chalk the other 20% up to BridgeBase randomness.)

Unfortunately, the first option was the one I chose.  I was still steaming over the failure to bid Stayman and figured that desperate times called for desperate measures.  I hooked the Diamond, it lost (Doh!)  I won the Diamond return, crossed to dummy, cashed 2 Diamonds (when the suit broke 3-3,) and took the losing Heart finesse.  I took 2 Spades, 2 Hearts and 3 Diamonds.  -200  Of course, if the King of Spades is offside, 4 Spades has no play either on this lead (not that a low Club lead from AJxx is at all likely.)

The way to minimize the damage is to play a Spade off and when RHO follows low, decline the finesse and play Ace and a Spade, endplaying LHO.  One declarer found that line in 3NT.

-200 was worth 11% and change, -100 would have garnered almost 44% of the matchpoints, so 1/3 of a board on my mistake.  As it turns out, 4 Spades can also be held to 8 tricks (a trump lead or the impossible low club lead) so partner's 3NT bid was actually a better spot (in theory) than 4 Spades.  Whodathunkit?

LHO

K76 / Q83 / QT9 / AJ53

RHO

54 / T7542 / 872 / K94